2025 Predictions with Bob Doll

FaithFi: Faith & Finance | Jan 16, 2025

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Show Notes

If you’re wondering what the economy will do in 2025, you don’t want to miss this program.

Few major league hitters can bat .300 in a given season. Imagine hitting .700! That’s what Bob Doll does every year: forecasting economic trends. He joins us today with his ten predictions for 2025.

Bob Doll is the CEO and CIO of Crossmark Global Investments. He regularly contributes to Faith and Finance and other media outlets like Bloomberg TV, Fox Business, and CNBC.

Key Economic Predictions: Fewer Tailwinds, More Tail Risks

The theme of Doll’s predictions signals a shift:

Fewer Tailwinds: Slower earnings growth and high valuation levels create less upward momentum.
More Tail Risks: A new political administration introduces uncertainty around regulation, tax policies, and trade.

Doll shares insights on everything from inflation to sector performance. Let’s dive into his top predictions for the year ahead.

1. Slower Economic Growth and Rising Unemployment

Doll predicts economic growth will slow as unemployment rises past 4.5%. While this signals a cooling job market, he emphasizes that a 4.5% unemployment rate is historically low and not cause for alarm.

2. Sticky Inflation and Limited Rate Cuts

Inflation is expected to remain stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This will likely limit the Fed’s ability to reduce interest rates, continuing the challenges seen in 2024.

3. Treasury Yields and Credit Spreads

Treasury yields are forecasted to trade between 3.75% and 4.75%, with credit spreads widening slightly as the economy slows. While this doesn’t point to a recession, it reflects tighter financial conditions.

4. Slower Earnings Growth

Doll anticipates earnings growth will fall short of the optimistic 14% consensus, noting that such high growth is rare without a post-recession recovery.

5. Increased Volatility

After a period of low volatility, Doll predicts the VIX (Volatility Index) will approach 20, reflecting greater market uncertainty. He advises investors to remain disciplined and avoid emotional reactions to market swings.

6. A 10% Market Correction

Doll foresees a 10% correction in 2025, emphasizing that such corrections are normal and should be viewed as buying opportunities for long-term investors.

7. Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperform Cap-Weighted Portfolios

Doll expects equal-weighted portfolios to outperform cap-weighted ones as the dominance of mega-cap stocks like the “Magnificent Seven” wanes.

8. Value Outperforms Growth

After years of underperformance, value stocks are projected to outshine growth stocks, driven by cheaper valuations.

9. Top Performing Sectors

Doll predicts financials, energy, and utilities will outperform sectors like healthcare, technology, and industrials. While technology remains essential, high valuations could temper its returns.

10. Tax Cuts and Reduced Regulation

With the Trump tax cuts set to expire in late 2025, Doll anticipates extensions alongside reduced regulations. However, divisive policies like tariffs and deportation may have limited economic impact.

11. Budgetary Challenges

Efforts to address government spending will face significant hurdles, with key programs like Social Security, Medicare, and defense spending off the table. Progress will likely fall short of ambitious deficit reduction targets.

Preparing for 2025

Doll acknowledges that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, but his insights provide valuable context for navigating the year ahead. He advises investors to stay diversified, remain disciplined, and prepare for volatility.

As we embrace 2025, let’s remember that while economic trends may fluctuate, wise stewardship and long-term planning remain steadfast principles for financial success.

On Today’s Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions:

When our children were young, my husband and I decided to start tithing despite our tight budget. I was skeptical about how we could afford it, but we began tithing in faith. Surprisingly, our budget never changed—the 10% we tithed didn't impact our weekly spending. It was almost miraculous how the Lord provided for us as we honored him with our finances. To this day, I'm not sure how it worked out, but God was so faithful when we stepped out in obedience.
We've saved up cash at home for emergencies but have no significant expenses since we live on Social Security. How much of that cash should I keep at home? And if I don't keep it all at home, what's the best way to keep it somewhat liquid and earn some interest rather than just storing it in a coffee can?

Resources Mentioned:

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