4%: A Rule To Be Broken?

Show Notes

For more than a quarter century, financial advisors have used the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals. So why change it now? Some advisors are now saying 4% may be too high, while the man who wrote the rule says it’s too low. In today's Faith and Finance Rob West weighs into the debate. This is Faith and Finance -  biblical wisdom for your financial decisions.

• We’ll start by consulting God’s Word about saving and spending, which lays down a basic principle. Proverbs 21:20 tells us, “Precious treasure and oil are in a wise man's dwelling, but a foolish man devours it.”
• We certainly don’t want to be foolish, so choosing the right percentage that we can withdraw from our holdings each year in retirement is important, to say the least. Too little and you may not be able to meet your expenses. Too much, and you run the risk of running out of funds during retirement.
• You might be curious about where the 4% rule came from in the first place. Way back in 1994, investment advisor Bill Bengen published an article that detailed how and why he was recommending to his clients that they only withdraw 4% a year from their assets in retirement.
• Bengen said he created his 4% rule based on a hypothetical investor who retired in October, 1968, and was promptly hit with an extended bear market and high inflation. In other words, a “worst case scenario.”
• And even though you might be tempted to think history is repeating itself now, Bengen believes that by tweaking asset allocation, a retiree would actually be safe withdrawing up to 4.7% annually, as he is doing now. To be fair, he’s suggesting that 4.5% would be safer, until we see what inflation will do in the near future.
• So how did Bengen arrive at the new, 4.7% figure? He says it’s due to the greater gains he’s seen by adding small and microcap asset classes to his portfolio. He says that increased volatility, but also gains, which made his 4.7% calculation possible.
• Besides the benefit of increasing the rate of withdrawal in retirement, the new rule also allows the retiree to reduce allocation in stocks over bonds. The old 4% rule was based on a 50 to 70% stock allocation, which could make many retirees jittery.
• The new higher withdrawal rate of 4.7% over the long haul is based on an ideal stock allocation of only 55 to 60%.
• Bengen says having less than that in equities will lower your return enough enough to make 4.7% unworkable, but having more than that will create enough volatility to also threaten your safe withdrawal rate.
• But not all investing experts are as optimistic as Bengen. In fact, Morningstar is now suggesting that the old 4% rule is too high a withdrawal rate for the times. They’re recommending that figure be reduced to just 3.3%.
• Remember that the goal is to have enough built up to last for a 30-year retirement, say from age 65 to 95. Market returns and inflation will no doubt fluctuate a great deal over that time, but in the end, they should balance out.
• And whether you use 3.3, 4, or 4.7% as your safe withdrawal rate in retirement, they all assume that percentage of your portfolio will be enough to live on when Social Security is added to the mix.
• Anyone contemplating an earlier retirement will need a great deal more in assets or a lower withdrawal rate, or both. That certainly won’t be easy.
• Some investment advisors suggest that maximum diversification is one way to overcome the uncertainties of bear markets and inflation. That means not just having a broad spectrum of stocks and bonds, but also having several different “buckets” of retirement holdings.
• Some might be in a 401k or traditional IRA with their tax-deferred benefit. Some could also be in a Roth IRA, that’s funded with after tax money but allows for tax-free withdrawals. Some equity holdings could be income-producing, some dividend-paying.
• Some fixed income securities could be I bonds, which are taxable; others could be municipal bonds which aren’t subject to federal tax. Some “munis” even escape state taxes, as long as you live in the state that issued the bonds.
• This can all get pretty confusing. There's a case for having an experienced financial advisor help you with your retirement investing, whether you’re already retired or you're still working. We believe strongly in the Certified Kingdom Advisor designation. With a CKA, you’ll not only have an experienced advisor, but one who shares your Christian values. You can find a local CKA professional, by going to faithfi.com and click the Find a CKA at the top of the page. Next, Rob answers these questions at 800-525-7000 or via email at askrob@FaithFi.com
• How can you give up a timeshare that you purchased last year if the sellers are telling you that it can't be sold back to them? (Rob referred the caller to the Timeshare Users Group).
• What's your best recourse to pay off about $7000 in credit card debt and buy now pay later loans if you are 64, living on a fixed income, and don't want to get further in debt? (Rob referred the caller to Christian Credit Counselors).
• Would it hurt your credit rating to close a Mastercard you opened last year when you were trying to get out of a timeshare, but never activated the card? (Rob referred the caller to annualcreditreport.com).
• What is the purpose of opening a Roth IRA now if you were told by an advisor you should have one waiting to be funded for when you retire in five years?
• How do you report interest paid to you by a home buyer who was initially renting from you? Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000. Also, visit our website at FaithFi.com where you can join the FaithFi Community, and even download the free FaithFi app.