“My approach to bonds is pretty much like my approach to stocks. If I can't understand something, I tend to forget it.” That from Warren Buffet. Now, if the Oracle of Omaha thinks bonds can be difficult to understand, you shouldn’t feel bad if you need someone to explain these fixed income securities to you. Fortunately, we have Mark Biller with us today to do just that.
WHAT'S THE CURRENT STATE OF BOND INVESTING, AND HOW HAVE RECENT EVENTS IMPACTED IT?
Bond investing has been challenging lately, especially after a long period of historically low interest rates. Recently, there's been a significant shift with the 30-year treasury bond yield rising from under 1% in 2020 to over 5%. This has led to losses in long-term bond funds, comparable to the worst stock market declines, showing it's a tough time for bond investors.
There's been a drastic shift in the bond market, with major losses in long-term bond funds.
The rise in treasury bond yields signifies a challenging environment for bond investors.
This period contrasts starkly with the previous era of low interest rates.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN RISKS IN BOND INVESTING, AND HOW DO THEY AFFECT BOND PRICES?
The two primary risks in bond investing are credit risk and interest rate risk. Credit risk relates to the borrower's ability to make interest payments and repay the bond at maturity. Diversification across various bonds can minimize this risk. Interest rate risk is the risk of getting locked into a below-market rate of return. This risk increases with the bond's term, and when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and vice versa.
Credit risk and interest rate risk are key concerns in bond investing.
Longer-term bonds are more susceptible to interest rate risk.
Rising interest rates lead to falling bond prices, impacting the value of long-term bonds.
HOW DOES BOND DURATION AFFECT INVESTMENTS, AND WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS KNOW?
Bond duration is a measure of how long it takes for the price of a bond to be repaid by its internal cash flows. It indicates how much a bond's price will change in response to interest rate changes. For instance, a bond fund with a three-year duration would likely see a 3% price drop if interest rates rise by 1%. A longer duration means higher risk but potentially higher returns, whereas shorter durations imply lower risk and volatility.
Bond duration measures a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes.
Longer duration bonds are more affected by interest rate fluctuations.
Understanding duration helps investors assess and compare risks in different bond funds.
WHAT ROLE DOES INFLATION PLAY IN BOND PRICES, AND HOW IS IT CONNECTED TO INTEREST RATES?
Inflation directly impacts bond prices through its relationship with interest rates. High inflation typically leads to higher interest rates as central banks increase rates to combat inflation. This in turn causes bond prices to fall. Inflation is thus a significant concern for bond investors as it can diminish the value of bonds.
Inflation drives up interest rates, negatively impacting bond prices.
The Federal Reserve uses interest rate adjustments as a primary tool against inflation.
Bond investors need to be cautious of inflation as it can reduce bond values.
WHAT'S THE OUTLOOK FOR BONDS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION IN 2024?
The outlook for bonds is cautiously optimistic, especially considering the likelihood of a recession in 2024. Recessions typically lead to interest rate cuts, which would increase bond values. However, if a recession is avoided, continued inflation might lead to further interest rate increases, posing risks for long-term bonds. Diversified portfolios with short and intermediate-term bonds are advisable, as they provide stability and potential benefits in both scenarios.
A recession in 2024 could lead to interest rate cuts, benefiting bond values.
Avoiding a recession might result in continued rate hikes, posing risks for bonds.
Diversified bond portfolios are recommended for stability in uncertain times.
ON TODAY’S PROGRAM, ROB ANSWERS LISTENER QUESTIONS:
I want to help my child pay off her six-figure student loans, but I'm unsure how to approach this, especially with the high interest rates and the possibility of loan forgiveness.
I own three properties: one I live in and two rentals. At 62, should I continue paying extra towards the principal of the rentals or redirect this to the mortgage of my primary residence?
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